Zero tariffs open China's door to Kenyan camel milk — but shipments haven't started

Since 1 May 2026, camel milk from Kenya has, in principle, been able to enter China without the 4 to 25 percent tariffs that used to apply to African goods. Beijing's expanded zero-tariff scheme now covers all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties to China — Eswatini is excluded because it recognises Taiwan — and, for a non-least-developed economy such as Kenya, runs until 30 April 2028.

For Kenya's camel-owning counties, the change removes one barrier between herders in Isiolo, Marsabit and Wajir and a market trade officials have said could be worth KES 5.2 billion (about US$40 million, at roughly KES 129.5 to the dollar) a year. But more than four months on, no Kenyan camel-milk shipments to China have been publicly reported, and Nairobi's own trade officials describe a broader push to open China to Kenyan meat and dairy as still being "fast-tracked" rather than finished.

A 98.2% opening, but not for camel milk yet

The tariff removal is part of a wider Kenya–China "Early Harvest" arrangement that gives 98.2 percent of Kenyan export lines duty-free access to a market of 1.4 billion consumers, Kenya's State Department for Trade has said. The first shipments under the new terms were avocados, avocado oil, hides and skins, coffee and green beans, Capital FM reported; camel milk was not among them.

In May 2026, a delegation from the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KNCCI) pressed China to fast-track a separate meat-export deal covering beef, pork, poultry and mutton. China's ambassador to Kenya, Guo Haiyan, pledged support for concluding it. KNCCI president Erick Rutto told the delegation: "For every one container that leaves Kenya, about 37 containers come into the country. This policy gives us a chance to double or even triple exports." Camel products were not named among the reported outcomes.

Where the Sh5.2 billion figure comes from

The number most quoted for the camel-milk opportunity predates the tariff cut by two years. In April 2024, Rutto told a KNCCI event in Garissa that China wanted 9 million litres of camel milk annually, worth KES 5.2 billion to Kenyan farmers, and urged northern county governments to invest in the sector, the Eastleigh Voice reported.

That estimate traces to an October 2023 agreement signed during President William Ruto's Beijing visit for the Belt and Road Forum, under which China agreed in principle to open its market to Kenyan camel, beef, poultry and goat meat. State-run ChinAfrica magazine reported that camel exports were due to begin from 1 January 2024 — though there is no public record of Kenyan camel milk reaching Chinese shelves since.

Why a tariff cut is not the same as market access

Chinese customs distinguish between the tariff charged at the border and market access — the separate process by which China's General Administration of Customs (GACC) certifies which countries and factories may sell a product into China at all. For dairy, that typically requires the exporting government to recommend named facilities to GACC, which can inspect them before issuing a registration number, trade-compliance publisher Reach24h explains.

Kazakhstan's camel milk powder first cleared Chinese customs in 2020 after Beijing issued a country-level customs notice permitting the imports — a lower bar than the factory-level registration still required for larger-volume general-trade sales, industry publication ChemLinked reported. There is no public confirmation that Kenya has secured either level of approval for camel milk — a gap that may help explain why Kenya's current diplomatic push is focused on meat, not camel milk.

The view from camel country

Kenya is the world's leading camel-milk producer, with herds concentrated in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit and Isiolo counties. Yet most of that milk never reaches a processing plant. A 2018 study mapping the supply chains feeding Nairobi, based on 2014–15 fieldwork, found 94 percent of camel milk sold in the city moved through informal, unregulated channels, with only 6 percent passing through a registered processor.

Formal capacity is thin. Vital Camel Milk, a processor near Nanyuki and one of the sector's few formal exporters, ships to South Africa rather than China and processes up to 2,600 litres a day, the company says — a fraction of the roughly 24,700 litres a day needed to meet the 9-million-litre China estimate. In Marsabit, the Moyale Camel Milk Dairy Cooperative Society, started by 20 farmers in 2018, pasteurises 2,000 to 3,000 litres a day from herders and sells mainly around Moyale, the Daily Nation has reported. Cooperatives working with SNV, a Dutch development agency, including two in Isiolo, say they still lack storage, refrigeration and value-addition equipment to grow beyond local markets.

Infrastructure is catching up, slowly

Kenya's livestock ministry has installed 230 bulk milk coolers nationwide and plans 650 more, after estimating poor cold storage costs the dairy sector KES 8.5 billion (about US$66 million) a year in spoiled milk, Livestock Development Principal Secretary Jonathan Mueke told the Star. A new KES 1 billion (about US$7.7 million) abattoir in Isiolo can process 300 cattle, 100 camels and 1,000 sheep and goats in an eight-hour shift — a sign cold-chain investment is reaching camel country, even if aimed more at meat than milk for now.

For herders and cooperatives in the north, the zero-tariff scheme has cleared one hurdle. Whether China's 9-million-litre estimate becomes a real order book depends on whether Nairobi can secure GACC registration for camel-milk processors, and whether those processors — mostly small cooperatives — can scale up cold storage fast enough to fill it.